Friday, September 4, 2009

Friday Notes - Averaging Up

As week five of the eight-week Jellie effort concluded today, it's been another full and extensive week as we now gear up for the "regular season" that post-Labor Day trading typically brings.

Today certainly wasn't bad all from an opportunity perspective though, as both the U.S. and Europe normal sessions were practically identical in their patterns (click early session charts to the right enlarge; ES on top, DAX on the bottom) and lack of weakness signals. As a result, the "tank" bias was strong throughout the day as we focused primarily on finding wholesale entries on both pullbacks and range expansions to take advantage of anticipated continuations.

And like the other day, the day's rhythm provided many opportunities, including three by this trader, to add to winning positions with the classic "buy-buy-buy-sell-sell" sequencing -- on the way up -- that top traders understand is often the best way to grow profits exponentially. And for newbies, yea, it results in a worse "average cost' ... yet each add provides incremental income.

Think of it this way, would you rather make two points on five contracts with a lower "average cost" or two points on five and one point on another five with a worse "average cost"?? Of course the backdrop and anticipated action has to provide for continuation, which is why market bias is so key. That change in mindset by itself has been enough to get some traders to finally see the light and reverse bad habits ... which is continuing to happen in the tank.

Today's tank emphasis was also on reinforcing the fact that one doesn't have to trade the high-risk Jobs data whipsaws to generate sustainable income from consistent, low-risk, and high-probability opportunities during the course of the 13 hours between when Europe opens and the U.S. close.

And if we can't find 2 or 3 prime opportunities in 13 hours, then I suppose we should empty the water out of the tank!

Look for much more -- including the usual "Weekend Trader" -- over the Holiday weekend.