Wednesday, January 14, 2009

Wednesday Notes - Size Matters

4:30pm Well, after trying a few long probes shortly after the opening bell rang in anticipation of at least a modest approach toward 860 -- and getting stopped on two attempts -- I finally got the idea and simply sat back looking for that one high-probability midday short retracement which we indeed got on the noon climb (we've seen this dance before). The result was a decent turnaround from a poor start to end the day in the green. The rest of the day was more or less a chopfest of which I had little interest.

As noted in the updated performance matrix to the left, you may note that for the first time this year, I self-graded myself dark green on size management. And for those wondering what it would take for me to finally make that happen, I view today as a good example as I kept sizes small on the early long nibble attempts, while putting some meat on during the midday short retracement when I had a lot more market data on which to base the entry. And for those who don't believe in varying sizes, I can't provide a better example of the positive impact it can have on one's bottom line. Or said another way and using our ongoing poker analogy, I certainly would bet pockets Kings heavier than 9-10 suited. So in my view, size matters.

Yet as we approach the midpoint of this first month of the new journey, I still feel as if I'm not in complete sync. It's a odd feeling as I've managed to end each day of the month green, although it's been far more of a waltz than a polka as my volume remains on the lighter side, and the days have been more along the lines of singles and doubles versus the home runs of last fall. In other words and going back to yesterday's post, I still feel like I'm hopping on that one found shoe.

Yet I suppose hopping is better than sitting, and so we'll go back at it tomorrow trying to keep moving ahead.

One step at a time.

1 comment:

Trader Kevin said...

Said another way and using our ongoing poker analogy, I certainly would bet pockets Kings heavier than 9-10 suited.I love the trading/poker analogy, as I play both games, but I think this is where it breaks down. If you always bet KK heavier than T9s pre-flop, you're giving away way too much information to your observant opponents.

Not so with the markets, where there's no bluffing in the poker sense.